We’re mapping where children and families in Novato face the greatest barriers and connecting those places to the schools they attend. This mirrors the Canal Promise Neighborhood approach: start with place, layer on data, and translate insights into action with district and community partners.
The Process
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Geography first. We identify high-need census tracts (e.g., Hamilton, 1041.02) using indicators such as children living in poverty, median household income, percentage of renters, and percentage of people of color.
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School linkages. For each tract, we list the zoned public schools (elementary/middle/high) serving families, layering on outcomes for 3rd grading, 8th grade math, and college readiness (UC/CSU a-g eligibility), as well as percentage of students of color.
Key Takeaways, Next Steps and Resources
Key Takeaways
- Where need concentrates. The highest child-poverty tracts sit in central/southern Novato where 35-40% of children live in poverty. Their default feeders are Hamilton TK–8, Lynwood Elementary, Loma Verde Elementary, San Jose Middle, and Novato High.
- Attendance + readiness gap. We see the same combo—higher chronic absence and lower early literacy/math—across multiple schools that serve the same south/central Novato tracts, which points to neighborhood factors (transportation, housing stress, language access) rather than school-specific issues—so a place-based strategy will have more impact than school-by-school pilots.
- Feeder leverage. Multiple high-need tracts converge on San Jose MS → Novato High, so coordinated supports at those two schools reach many of the right students at once.
- Place matters. Lower Healthy Places Index (HPI) scores in the central/south tracts align with housing cost burden, transportation, and access to care—factors that show up in classrooms.
- Novato residents are housing cost-burdened: roughly half spend at least 30% of income on rent, while a quarter are severely burdened spending more than 50% of income on rent.
- Why place-based? The same outcomes/issues appear across schools serving the same tracts → shared neighborhood barriers → coordinate services by neighborhood/feeder, not school.
Proposed Next Steps: Now → Next
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Now: Focus attendance and early-literacy supports in the central/southern tract cluster feeding Hamilton, Lynwood, Loma Verde, San Jose MS, and Novato High through an ELCAN action team.
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Next: Build a joint San Jose MS ↔ Novato High “feeder plan” (family engagement, mental-health capacity, targeted tutoring) to improve MS→HS handoffs and reduce chronic absence.
Additional Resources
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Explore the range of programs and services partners are offering in Novato (and the rest of the county) on our dashboard.
Mapping the Data
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Click a tract area to see its profile of key census-level data and the default school pathway (TK-8/9-12).
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Compare tracts to spot patterns in levels of student poverty, as well as student outcomes. Note: each tract is shaded based on the level of children living in poverty.
- Click school icons for additional information, including percentage of students of color, as well as outcomes data.
Census and School Data
California Healthy Places Index for Novato
Click image to dive deeper into the data
Dig Deeper into the Data
3rd Grade Reading (CAASPP ELA)
California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP), 2024-25
Trends
- District trend: Third grade reading is below the 2018 high (56% for all students, 44% Students of Color) and sits at 49% (38% SoC) in 2025—still not all the way back to pre-pandemic levels, but higher since the baseline year of 2015
- Equity gap: Latest year shows White 64% vs Students of Color 38% → 26-point gap (similar to the baseline year gap).
- Bright spots in district: Pleasant Valley 80% (SoC), San Ramon 61% (SoC) (district leaders this year).
Priority schools (see individual school charts the end):
- Lynwood: All 23%, SoC 9% (lowest of the three)
- Hamilton TK-8: All 31%, SoC 4%
- Loma Verde: All 38%, SoC 5%
Why they likely trail (potential causes to explore):
- Higher poverty & language needs → more catch-up time in K–3
- Attendance barriers (transport, family/work, health) cut into steady reading time
- Pandemic-era K–2 skill gaps (phonics/fluency) still working through cohorts
- Limited staffing/time for small groups across grades
- Inconsistent core routines (screeners, decodables, frequent progress checks)
Priority School-level Charts
Note: white student cohort sizes too small to represent
Lynwood
Hamilton TK-8
Loma Verde
8th Grade Math (CAASPP)
California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP), 2024-25
Trends:
- Peak → down: All students peaked at 57% in 2019 and sit at 38% in 2025 (19 points vs 2019).
- Students of Color are at 30% in 2025; White at 53%.
- Directionally, math has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels and is flatter than reading.
Equity gap:
- Latest year gap: 23 points (White: 53% vs SoC: 30%).
- Gap has been persistent, with both groups down from 2019 highs.
Why they likely trail (potential causes to explore):
- Middle-grade skill gaps: fractions/ratios/expressions weren’t fully rebuilt post-COVID.
- Course placement/fit: students landing in a course that’s too fast (or too slow) lose traction.
- Time-on-task & tutoring: not enough just-in-time help when students hit a wall.
- Attendance drag: missed lessons compound quickly in math sequences.
Transfer points: 8th→9th transitions (schedule changes, new teachers) break momentum.
College Readiness: A–G Completion (C- or better)
College Readiness (UC/CSU a-g eligibility) outcomes California Department of Education, 2024-25
The above California Dashboard College/Career Indicator (CCI) uses several variables to measure college and career readiness, including completing advanced coursework like AP or IB exams, earning college credit through dual enrollment, or completing a Career Technical Education (CTE) pathway
Trends
- Peak → eased: District All peaked around 67% (2021) and is 58% in 2025; up 12% pts since baseline (2013)
- Direction: general recovery from the immediate post-COVID dip, but not all the way back to the peak
What jumps out
- Equity gap for the latest year shows White 73% vs Students of Color 47% → 26-point gap
- The gap has been stubborn, even when overall A–G ticked up (+2 growth since 2013 baseline year)
Why they likely trail (potential causes to explore)
- Course access & sequence: bottlenecks in A–G math/language pathways; not enough students hitting Algebra 2 / LOTE 2 on time.
- Schedule fit & conflicts: A–G courses bump into work, ELD, or support classes; students can’t fit all A–G boxes.
- Advising bandwidth: too few proactive transcript audits in grades 9–11; misses aren’t caught until spring of senior year.
- Credit recovery timing: make-up options come late (summer/senior spring) and don’t always repair C– thresholds.
- GPA/C– threshold: borderline grades in key courses knock students out of A–G even when they “took the right classes.”
- Small-N fragility: a handful of non-completes can swing SoC rates; precision supports matter.
College Enrollment (first fall)
National Student Clearinghouse, 2024 Graduates
Trends
- Overall enrollment is relatively steady with small swings year-to-year
- Students of Color hit an all-time low of 65% in the latest year, while other groups were flat to slightly down (though white students stayed above the 80% goal)
Equity gap
- Latest year shows White 80% vs Students of Color 65% → 15-point gap
- The gap has been stubborn, having grown +3 pts since 2013 baseline year)
Why they likely trail (potential causes to explore)
- The drop is concentrated among Students of Color, widening the gap even when College Readiness (a-g) has seen an uptick – pointing to potential navigation/affordability barriers (FAFSA, verification, placement, summer steps) more than “preparation.”
- Lower FAFSA → lower enrollment: This year’s dip in FAFSA completion in Novato tracks with the drop to 65% enrollment among Students of Color—fewer completed FAFSAs means fewer students clearing affordability/verification hurdles and actually enrolling.
College Completion (degree within six years)
National Student Clearinghouse, 2024 Graduates
Trends
- Completion is a lagging indicator (older cohorts), so changes are gradual year-to-year.
- Four-year starters complete at higher rates than two-year starters; the JC → CSU/UC transfer path shows the largest loss points (credit momentum, advising, basic needs).
- Overall trend is flat to slightly down for recent cohorts, consistent with regional patterns.
Equity gap
- Gaps persist between White students and Students of Color in the latest cohort.
- The gap has been stubborn across cohorts, with only modest movement since the baseline period.
Why they likely trail (potential causes to explore)
- Credit momentum: students who start with 15+ credits in term 1 complete at much higher rates; many do not hit that threshold.
- Transfer friction: unclear maps, credit loss on transfer, and limited warm handoffs depress completion on the two-year start pathway.
NUSD Chronic Absence (missing 10% or more classes)
Trends: 2019 → 2025: still ~3–4% pts higher than pre-pandemic for both SoC and White.
Peak year 2023 (Novato All 18%; SoC 18%; White 14%) → meaningful easing in 2024 and 2025, but not fully back to 2019 levels.
What jumps out (see countywide chart at the end of this document)
- Peaked in 2023 and came down in 2024: All 11%, SoC 11%, White 9% – ticked back up a bit in 2025
- Gap is modest: SoC–White 4% pts in 2025—a little smaller than Marin County (5% pts)
Why it’s still behind (potential causes to explore)
- More illness/absences than 2019 still lingering.
- Logistics & family/work pulls make daily attendance fragile for some students.
- Better communication/make-up work and routines likely helped 2024 improve, but there’s still ground to make up.
| School | % Students of Color | % English Learners | Chronic Absence (SoC) | 3rd Grade Reading (SoC) | 8th Grade Math (SoC) | College Readiness (SoC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hamilton TK-8 |
89% |
44% |
8% |
15% |
21% |
No indicator |
|
Loma Verde Elementary |
67% |
32% |
10% |
19% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
|
Lu Sutton Elementary |
77% |
35% |
12% |
29% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
|
Lynwood Elementary |
80% |
38% |
11% |
21% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
|
Marin Oaks High |
78% |
30% |
38% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
0% |
|
Nova Education Center |
52% |
1% |
11% |
Cohort size too small |
Cohort size too small |
No indicator |
|
Novato High |
64% |
15% |
23% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
47% |
|
Olive Elementary |
58% |
20% |
13% |
22% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
|
Pleasant Valley Elementary |
37% |
5% |
10% |
72% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
|
Rancho Elementary |
60% |
25% |
9% |
40% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
|
San Jose Middle |
72% |
17% |
19% |
No indicator |
16% |
No indicator |
|
San Marin High |
50% |
6% |
19% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
55% |
|
San Ramon Elementary |
46% |
10% |
5% |
61% |
No indicator |
No indicator |
|
Sinaloa Middle |
50% |
10% |
13% |
No indicator |
44% |
No indicator |
|
All Schools |
60% |
18% |
14% |
38% |
30% |
47% |
| Tract | Schools Served | % People of Color | Median Household Income | % Children in Poverty | % Renters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Various in schools Novato, Burdell, and San Antonio, CA |
28% |
$154k |
0% |
7% |
|
|
Olive Elementary, San Jose Middle, San Marin High & Novato High |
32% |
$120k |
7% |
16% |
|
|
San Ramon Elementary, Sinaloa Middle, San Marin High |
36% |
$122k |
3% |
18% |
|
|
San Ramon Elementary, Sinaloa Middle, San Marin High |
41% |
$106k |
3% |
23% |
|
|
Lu Sutton Elementary Sinaloa Middle, San Marin High |
51% |
$81k |
5% |
46% |
|
|
Pleasant Valley Elementary Sinaloa Middle, San Marin High |
30% |
$169k |
4% |
14% |
|
|
Lu Sutton Elementary Sinaloa Middle, San Marin High |
5% |
$105k |
33% |
36% |
|
|
Lynwood Elementary, San Jose Middle, Novato High |
40% |
$91k |
67% |
52% |
|
|
Loma Verde Elementary, San Jose Middle, Novato High |
0% |
$162k |
38% |
18% |
|
|
Loma Verde Elementary, San Jose Middle, Novato High |
37% |
$142k |
43% |
42% |
|
|
Loma Verde Elementary, San Jose Middle, Novato High |
10% |
$108k |
38% |
37% |
|
|
Hamilton TK-8, Novato High |
0% |
$162k |
23% |
10% |
|
|
Hamilton TK-8, Novato High |
10% |
$94k |
65% |
46% |
|
|
Hamilton TK-8, Novato High |
0% |
$132k |
37% |
34% |
|
|
All Schools |
44% |
$112k |
13% |
34% |
- SoC = Students of Color
- Students of Color data from California Department of Education, 2024-25
- English Learner data from California Department of Education, 2024-25
- 3rd Grade Reading & 8th Grade Math outcomes from California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP), 2024-25
- College Readiness (UC/CSU a-g eligibility) outcomes California Department of Education, 2024-25 Four-Year Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate
- College Enrollment & Completion data from National Student Clearinghouse, 2024 Graduates
- Chronic Absence data from California Department of Education, 2024-25
- Census data from American Community Survey (ACS) 2023 5-Year
- % Children in Poverty reflects children under 18 below the federal poverty line (ACS)