West Marin Analysis

3rd Grade Reading (CAASPP ELA)

Shoreline Unified (Cohort sizes too small for other Bolinas, Lagunitas, and Nicasio schools)

Note: white student cohort sizes too small to represent

California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP), 2024-25

Trends: 2015 → 2024

• Overall: 55% → 50% (–5% pts)
• Students of Color: 32% → 40% (+8% pts)
• White: 86% → 64% (–22% pts; tiny cohorts = volatile)
• Hispanic/Latino: 30% → 40% (+10% pts)
• English Learner: 27% → 24% (–3% pts)
• Economically Disadvantaged: 19% → 46% (+27% pts)

What jumps out

• Overall nearly back to baseline (–5% pts vs 2015), despite the dips we saw mid-series.
• Equity lift: SoC (+8% pts) and Econ Disadvantaged (+27% pts) improved vs 2015.
• White declines from a very high baseline; but cohorts are small, so single-student shifts move the rate a lot.
• EL slightly down, suggesting language-aligned supports in early literacy remain a lever.

Why it’s still behind (potential causes to explore)

• Foundational recovery gaps: Not every cohort fully re-built K–2 phonemic awareness/phonics fluency.
• Small-N volatility: A few student moves (or school mix shifts) can swing subgroup rates by double digits.
• EL scaffolds + core alignment: Tight coupling of ELD with structured literacy likely to help.
• Attendance + rural logistics: Weather/road issues and long commutes interrupt sequential instruction and progress monitoring.
• Intervention dosage/materials: Consistency of Tier-2 minutes and decodable text access influences catch-up velocity.

8th Grade Math (CAASPP)

Shoreline Unified

Note: white student cohort sizes too small to represent

Lagunitas Elementary

Note: white and students of color cohort sizes too small to represent

California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP), 2024-25

Shoreline (All Schools)

• Trends (2015 → 2025): Overall 28% → 22% (–6% pts); Students of Color 22% → 17% (–5% pts)
• 2025 snapshot: Overall 8/37 → 22%; SoC 3/18 → 17%

Lagunitas Elementary

• Trends (2015 → 2025): Overall 19% → 62% (+43% pts); SoC: Cohort size too small
• 2025 snapshot: Overall 11/18 → 62%

Tomales Elementary

• Trends (2015 → 2025): Overall 29% → 24% (–5% pts); SoC 19% → 25% (+6% pts)
• 2025 snapshot: Overall 6/25 → 24%; SoC 3/12 → 25%

West Marin Elementary

• Trends (2015 → 2025): Overall 25% → 17% (–8% pts); SoC: (no 2015 row; 2025 very small cohort)
• 2025 snapshot: Overall 2/12 → 17%; SoC 0/6 → 0% (tiny N; interpret cautiously)

What jumps out

• District is down 6% pts vs 2015.
• Lagunitas overall pops to 62% (+43% pts vs 2015).
• Tomales softens overall but SoC improves (+6% pts).
• West Marin overall slides; SoC reads 0% in 2025 on a tiny cohort (super volatile).

Why it’s still behind (potential causes to explore)

• Algebra-readiness pipeline gaps (fractions/ratio → linear functions) persist through grades 6–8.
• Small-school constraints: multi-grade sections and limited intervention blocks reduce steady Tier-2 time.
• Pacing/coherence: inconsistent problem-based curriculum with daily fluency/spiral review → skill decay between units.
• Formative cadence: not enough item-level checks → slower re-teaching before spring.
• Attendance & rural logistics: weather/roads/commutes disrupt multi-day concept arcs.
• Language load: uneven math-language scaffolds (vocab, representations) can undercut SoC/EL performance.

College Readiness: A–G Completion (C- or better)

Shoreline Unified (Tomales High)

Note: white student cohort sizes too small to represent

College Readiness (UC/CSU a-g eligibility) outcomes California Department of Education, 2024-25

The above California Dashboard College/Career Indicator (CCI) uses several variables to measure college and career readiness, including completing advanced coursework like AP or IB exams, earning college credit through dual enrollment, or completing a Career Technical Education (CTE) pathway

Trends:

• All Students 2015 → 2025: +1% pts (40% → 41%) – bouncing back after landing to its lowest point last year
• Students of Color 2015 → 2025: +13% pts (28% → 41%) – up since baseline, but still lower than the high-water mark of 82% in 2018

What jumps out

• 2019 was a high-water mark (small cohort: 23/28 A–G), and 2025’s 11/27 explains the –41% pts drop—small-N volatility matters, but the multi-year direction is still down.
• A–G and overall readiness both declined: California Dashboard doesn’t show a compensating rise in other “Prepared” pathways big enough to offset A–G losses.
• Risk points look upstream: Given the 8th-grade math/ELA patterns, the A–G slide likely reflects pipeline issues (course placement, Algebra readiness, and credit accumulation), not just senior-year steps.

Why it’s still behind (potential causes to explore)

• Course access + schedule grid: Limited sections for lab science/world language/upper-math in a rural HS can block A–G completion.
• Math readiness: Gaps from middle grades (fractions/linear → Algebra I) drive course grades and credit progress.
• Counseling bandwidth & checkpoints: Without tight A–G audits (by end of 9th/10th) and proactive schedule fixes, students arrive in 12th short a requirement.
• Attendance/logistics: Storms/roads/work/family responsibilities = missed labs and make-up windows that matter for A–G.
• Alternative pathway alignment: Some CTE/dual-enrollment wins may count for Dashboard “Prepared,” but don’t always satisfy A–G—worth aligning where possible.

College Enrollment (first fall)

Shoreline Unified (Tomales High)

National Student Clearinghouse, 2024 Graduates

Trends:

• All Students 2013 → 2024: –11% pts (69% → 58%) – down from mid-2010s highs.
  Counts: 2013 = 34/49; 2024 = 18/31.
• Students of Color 2013 → 2024: +13% pts (50% → 63%) – up since baseline, but below the high-water mark of ~81% in 2021.
  Counts: 2013 = 9/18; 2024 = 10/16.

What jumps out

• Diverging long-arc: Since 2013, SoC rose while overall fell, narrowing the gap. But both are below mid-2010s peaks (overall peaked 86% in 2014; SoC peaked 81% in 2021).
• Small-N volatility: A swing of 3–5 students can move rates by 10+ % pts (e.g., 18/31 vs 21/31). Interpret year-to-year with caution.
• Recent softening from peak: SoC eased from 81% (2021) to 63% (2024); overall hovered in the 60s through 2023 before landing 58% in 2024.

Why it’s still behind (potential causes to explore)

• Affordability & process frictions: FAFSA/CAFSA declines, verification barriers, and late summer steps reduce actual matriculation even when students are “ready.”
• Program match & proximity: Limited nearby 2-yr/4-yr options and transport add melt in a rural context.
• Academic momentum: Middle-grade math/ELA dips echo into senior grades and placement, affecting enrollment follow-through.
• Advising capacity: Thin senior advising (app/aid/placement checklists) leaves tasks unfinished after graduation.
• Family/work trade-offs: Local employment pulls some grads directly to work, especially when aid/placement is uncertain.

College Completion (degree within six years)

Shoreline Unified (Tomales High)

National Student Clearinghouse, 2024 Graduates

Trends

• All Students 2013 → 2024: +18% pts (34% → 52%) – steady rise over the decade, highest in 2024.
  Counts: 2013 = 20/58 (34%); 2024 = 15/29 (52%).
• Students of Color 2013 → 2024: +48% pts (5% → 53%) – sharp improvement from a very low baseline, highest in 2024.
  Counts: 2013 = 1/21 (5%); 2024 = 9/17 (53%).

What jumps out

• New high-water mark in 2024 for both All Students (52%) and SoC (53%) — despite small cohorts, the improvement is large versus 2013.
• Equity lift: SoC completion increased +48% pts since 2013; the SoC rate now slightly edges the overall rate (53% vs 52%) in 2024.
• Small-N dynamics: Cohorts are small (e.g., 29 overall, 17 SoC in 2024). A swing of 3–5 graduates can move rates by 10–15% pts—interpret single-year changes cautiously.

Why it’s still behind (potential causes to explore)

• Pipeline & persistence: Completion reflects long-run supports across advising, financial aid renewal, course sequencing, and transfer; early cracks (math/ELA readiness, attendance) echo years later.
• Melt between enrollment → year 2: Students who enroll but don’t pass gateway math/English or who face aid/transport barriers often stop out.
• Pathway fit: Without strong advising into coherent 2-year/4-year pathways (and clear transfer maps), momentum stalls—especially for part-time students.

West Marin Chronic Absence (missing 10% or more classes)

West Marin Chronic Absence (missing 10% or more classes)

Trends: 2019 → 2025

• Students of Color: 17% → 20% (+3% pts)
• White: 17% → 20% (+3% pts)
• Hispanic/Latino: 16% → 20% (+4% pts)
• Overall: 18% → 21% (+3% pts). Peaked at 41% in 2021–22, then improved but not back to baseline
• Economically Disadvantaged: 19% → 22% (+3% pts)
• English Learner: 14% → 23% (+9% pts)

What jumps out

• Still elevated vs. pre-COVID: Despite progress since the 2021–22 peak, overall chronic absence remains about 3 percentage points above 2019 and approaching double the countywide averages of 13% and 15% for Overall and Students of Color respectively.

Why it’s still behind (potential causes to explore)

• Distance & transportation in West Marin: Long routes, limited transit, and occasional late/limited buses can turn small disruptions into repeated absences.

• Weather & road disruptions: Storms, flooding, slides, and rural road closures can cluster multi-day absences.

• Health & wellbeing: Lingering waves of respiratory illness, mental-health factors, and limited nearby care options can depress steady attendance.

• Work & family responsibilities: Seasonal/agricultural/tourism employment patterns and sibling care can pull students out intermittently.

• Housing & stability: Moves, long commutes from more affordable areas, or unstable housing can increase sporadic misses.

• Engagement & access: Language access for EL families, inconsistent two-way communication, and late identification into Tier 2/3 supports can delay interventions.

• School operations: Bell schedules, limited make-up options, and post-pandemic policy shifts (early leniency) may still dampen day-to-day attendance habits.